Analysing the Risks and Returns of Recurring Deposits in Different Economic Climates

Recurring deposits (RDs) are gaining popularity in India, especially in this seemingly gloomy bearish market. Investors are preferring to park their money in safer, non-market-linked instruments like Fixed Deposits and RDs. While FDs are great for long-term growth, with RDs, you can grow your money slowly and steadily to build an emergency fund or to meet your short-term goals. Also, being a non-market-linked product, RD interest rates are unaffected even during market volatility. That said, it is essential to analyse some risks and returns, particularly under different economic conditions, to make informed decisions about your savings.

Risks Associated with Recurring Deposits

While recurring deposits are generally considered safe investments, there could be some potential risks. It's crucial to be aware of these risks before making your investment decision.

1. Inflation Risk: Inflation erodes the purchasing power of your money over time. If the interest rates offered by RDs do not keep pace with inflation, your returns may not be sufficient to meet your financial goals.

    

   Suppose you invest in a recurring deposit that offers a fixed return of 6%. However, the inflation rate is at 7%. In this case, even though you are earning a return on your investment, your purchasing power is decreasing due to inflation. The real return after adjusting for inflation is negative (-1%).

    

2. Interest Rate Risk: RDs offer fixed interest rates for the duration of the deposit. In a falling interest rate environment, you may miss out on higher returns available in other investment avenues. 

    

   Let's say you invest in an RD at 6% per annum for 5 years. If after a year, the interest rates rise to 7%, you will miss-out on the higher interest rates. 

    

3. Liquidity Risk: RDs have a fixed term, typically ranging from 6 months to 10 years. Withdrawing your funds before the maturity date may result in penalties or lower interest rates.

    

Risks vs Returns of Recurring Deposits Under Different Economic Scenarios 

The performance of RDs can vary depending on the prevailing economic conditions. Let's analyse the risks and returns of RDs in different economic climates:

1. Low Interest Rate Environment

• Returns: In a low interest rate environment, RD interest rates tend to be lower, resulting in relatively lower returns for investors.
• Risks: The risk of RDs remains low as they provide guaranteed returns irrespective of market conditions.

2. High Interest Rate Environment

• Returns: When interest rates are high, RD interest rates also increase, leading to potentially higher returns for investors.
• Risks: The risk remains low as RDs offer fixed returns, but the opportunity cost of locking funds at lower rates for longer tenures increases.

3. High Inflation Period

• Returns: RD returns may not keep pace with high inflation, leading to a decline in the real value of investments.
• Risks: The risk of erosion in purchasing power exists due to the lower returns compared to inflation.

4. Economic Slowdown

• Returns: RD returns remain unaffected by economic slowdowns as they provide fixed interest rates.
• Risks: The risk of default is minimal as RDs are offered by regulated banks and financial institutions.

5. Volatile Market Conditions

• Returns: RD returns are not linked to market performance and remain stable during volatile market conditions.
• Risks: RDs offer a safe haven for investors looking to preserve capital during uncertain times.

Two Interest Rate Scenarios To Understand Risks vs Returns From Recurring Deposits

Scenario 1: Low-Interest Rate Environment

Suppose you invest ₹10,000 per month in an RD for five years with an interest rate of 5%. Using a compound interest calculator, we find that at the end of five years, you would have accumulated approximately ₹6,20,000.

Scenario 2: High-Interest Rate Environment

Now, let's consider the same investment but in a high-interest rate environment of 8%. Using the same compound interest calculator, we find that at the end of five years, you would have accumulated approximately ₹6,50,000.

Disclaimer: The above examples are for illustration purposes only. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank doesn’t take responsibility for the accuracy of the information.